Despite having won their opening two games in Group H, Mauricio Pochettino’s side still have to face back-to-back winners Real Madrid home and away before making the trip to Germany to face Borussia Dortmund.
According to the study, Manchester United are the most likely of the Premier League sides to make it out of the Group Stage, with a 91% chance of finishing top of their group and a 6% chance of winning the entire competition.
While Spurs rank lowest of the English sides, they do in fact still have an 82% chance of making out of their group, though with Zinedine Zidane’s Galacticos in the mix their chances of finishing top are just 22%.
FiveThirtyEight uses a complex methodology to predict the outcomes of domestic and continental leagues throughout the world and across a number of sports.
For the Champions League, they use four metrics from each game a club plays (goals scored, adjusted goals, shot-based goals and non-shot expected goals) to create offensive and defensive ratings for each side.
Where it becomes more complicated is, with leagues in Europe varying in strength, FiveThirtyEight use inter-league matches as well as market values to rank each European league in terms of strength.